Swedish researchers analyzed incentive packages for rooftop PV and steered adapting future schemes to totally different investor profiles.
Researchers from Chalmers University of Technology and PV advisory agency Becquerel Sweden AB investigated the impression of direct subsidies on photo voltaic deployment in Sweden. They urged policymakers to adapt future packages to totally different investor traits.
The group analyzed all incentives for rooftop PV between 2009 and 2021, primarily based on an evaluation of 79,336 functions for PV capital help offered by the federal government.
“For the examine, the dependent variable is the willingness to put money into photo voltaic,” the scientists defined. “The seven unbiased variables (IVs), one analysis variable, and 6 management variables included within the examine are the subsidy degree, the PV module worth, the serial variety of the month, the electrical day-ahead spot worth, the rate of interest, the state of the economic system, and vitality tax on self-consumed electrical energy.”
The group stated that the utmost capital subsidy in 2009 was set at as much as 55% for big firms and 60% for all different teams, In 2021, it reached as much as 10% for firms and as much as 20% for all different entities. At its peak in 2019, the annual funds for PV subsidies stood at about SEK 1.2 billion ($110 million).
The teachers separated the info into 4 teams of traders: households, firms, associations, and public organizations. They analyzed it with quasi-Poisson regression, that’s used to mannequin an overdispersed depend variable, and 4 totally different robustness exams to examine whether or not the outcomes stay constant throughout totally different strategies.
“Our outcomes reveal that there are necessary disparities between the 4 totally different teams, suggesting that various factors out there dynamics might have an effect on the renewable electrical energy expertise (RET) investor group in several are,” the researchers stated. “In explicit, solely households have a constructive relationship between the extent of subsidy and the willingness to speculate. An identical impact is noticed for personal firms, nevertheless, the energy of this relationship can’ g questionable attributable to potential instability.”
Explaining the shortage of affect of public organizations and associations, scientists recommend that they’re extra delicate to coverage danger. Among the coverage dangers, they are saying, is the restricted funds of the Swedish subsidy program, the lengthy ready time for subsidies, and the fixed change within the degree of subsidies.
“The outcomes spotlight the necessity for analysis to raised inform policymakers concerning the potential preferences of investor teams,” the lecturers concluded. “We recommend that with the intention to seize the nuances of various investor teams, it shouldn’t solely deal with excessive or antagonistic teams, for instance, firms versus households, or income-driven versus savings-driven actors , but in addition for different subgroups, reminiscent of households, firms, associations and public organizations.”
The scientists introduced their findings within the examine “The impression of photo voltaic PV subsidies on funding over time – the case of Sweden,” revealed in Energy Economy.
Image: Chalmers University of Technology, Energy Economics, CC BY 4.0 DEED
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