Donato Leo is the creator of a examine on the connection between photovoltaics, batteries and wholesale vitality costs in Italy. Leo’s deep studying simulation suggests adjustments in vitality costs as put in battery capability will increase.
From pv journal ESS News web site
As an vitality knowledgeable embedded in utility operations, Leo makes use of deep studying and machine studying codes for evaluation and forecasting to research and simulate market eventualities. and optimize portfolio administration methods. In his newest evaluation, Leo used deep studying methods to mannequin PUN developments relating to the set up of utility-scale batteries. PUN (Italian acronym for Prezzo Unico Nazionale, “National Single Price”) – the wholesale reference value of electrical energy bought on the Borsa Elettrica Italiana (IPEX – Italian Power Exchange) market – represents the nationwide weighted common of the zonal electrical energy gross sales value for every hour and for every day.
Graphs of electrical energy demand in electrical energy grids, appear like a duck or a camel (right here referred to as a camel-backed curve), with excessive factors within the morning and night when folks depend on the grid, and a big to dip within the center. through the day, which can be when extra individuals are utilizing their very own photo voltaic and wish much less from the grid.
According to Leo, BESSs cut back the utmost value of electrical energy, improve the minimal value, and have a season-dependent impact on the common value: it decreases on days with little daylight, and will increase much less on excessive PV manufacturing.
BESS permits PV to keep away from feeding the grid throughout low PUN hours of the day and to place electrical energy into the grid throughout darker, excessive PUN hours. It will pay increased prices for BESS and improve income, but it surely is dependent upon the context, proper? Can you clarify?
Donato Leo: The form of the PUN curve is carefully associated to the peculiarities of the technology fleet, which, within the case of PV, shouldn’t be but properly outfitted with BESS and is due to this fact pressured to supply and feed through the hours of the day. The progressive adoption of BESS (and the event of storage companies supplied by third events) will lead PV operators to retailer vitality through the present lower-paid daytime of day after which feed it to the grid throughout peak PUN hours, prone to flatten the present camelback. curve. If it is a believable state of affairs, it’s clear that, in such a context, extra revenue can be loved in a interval by PV utility scale operators who first use BESS, as a result of initially they are going to discover the present PUN “camel again curve” unchanged (or almost so), with a big day by day unfold between day by day PUNmax and PUNmin.
You use deep studying methods to develop an algorithm to find out how the PUN curve – now exactly camel-shaped – can change. Going into element, it appears that evidently the second hump disappears from the curve at evening, leaving solely the primary one through the hours with out vitality enter. Or it could possibly be that the 2 humps are smoothed out anyway, proper? What does this imply for battery cost?
DL: Let me preface this by saying that the algorithm whose outcomes you see in my Linkedin posts is the results of preliminary convolutional neural community (CNN) coaching, primarily based on historic hourly inventory market and vitality stability knowledge from 2023, and this primary a part of 2024. Therefore, the related predictions needs to be taken with due warning, additionally making an allowance for that, within the examples I’ve -post, I contemplate the various adjustments in PV manufacturing from day to nighttime hours: in between, nonetheless, there are results of unpredictable methods of operators, in response to the adopted by first movers.
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