The Netherlands recorded extra hours of unfavorable power costs between January 1 and August 17 than in all of 2023. The Dutch analysis agency Stratergy famous a transparent correlation between anticipated photo voltaic and wind power and unfavorable hourly value for the approaching day. market.
The EPEX SPOT Day-ahead market is registered within the Netherlands 347 hours in unfavorable costs between January 1 and August 14, in response to figures from the Dutch consultancy Stratergy. In 2023, the full variety of occasions of unfavorable costs reached 316 for the entire yr.
“It is predicted that this yr, the full will fall between 450 and 550 hours, relying on the additional improvement of gasoline costs,” mentioned analyst Jan Willem Zwang. pv journal. “There is a transparent correlation between the anticipated photo voltaic and wind power for the subsequent day and the unfavorable hourly costs within the each day market. The unfavorable costs are normally the day of the summer season months, particularly on weekends, holidays, and through holidays when the anticipated consumption is decrease. In addition, it’s apparent that the wind is much less sturdy in the course of the night time and colder months straight contributed to the unfavorable costs each hour.
Zwang mentioned the expansion of photo voltaic and wind capability is predicted to extend the variety of hours with unfavorable costs within the coming years. He predicts a considerable improve in unfavorable value occasions as renewable power capability expands.
“In 2025, we’ll in all probability see between 550 and 750 hours,” he added, saying that these outcomes depend upon the event of gasoline costs and the bidding methods of gasoline producers. -or power. “In 2026, between 800 and 1,200 hours. For 2027, 2028, and 2029, projections vary between 1,000 and 1,500 hours.
Producers are anticipated to be extra reluctant to promote a day forward when costs are unfavorable, particularly within the latest SDE++ scheme. Zwang added that congestion and capacity-limiting contracts may result in fewer and fewer extreme unfavorable daytime costs, though extra hours with unfavorable costs have been noticed this yr.
“For instance, final yr July there have been 65 hours with unfavorable costs at a median value of – € 51.67 ($ 56.75) / MWh, whereas this yr 81 hours with unfavorable costs had been recorded in a common value of – € 22.76 / MWh,” he mentioned.
In 2020, the common unfavorable value is –€9.57/MWh, however within the following two years it was -€14.82/MWh and -€34.61/MWh, respectively. In 2023, it is going to be – €26.06/MWh and till this yr it has been €22.26/MWh.
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