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Solar + Wind Now Exceeds 20% of Total US Generating Capacity
A assessment by the SUN DAY Campaign of information lately launched by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reveals that the combo of renewable power sources (ie, biomass, geothermal, hydropower, photo voltaic, wind) supplies nearly all of the bag -on manufacturing capability within the US in April. in addition to year-to-date (YTD). Renewable power sources are actually nearly 30% of the entire capability. Additionally, for the eighth consecutive month, photo voltaic was the most important supply of producing capability.
Renewables exceeded 99% of recent producing capability in April and YTD:
In its most up-to-date month-to-month “Energy Infrastructure Update” (with information by means of April 30, 2024), FERC says 33 photo voltaic “models” totaling 1,324 megawatts (MW) have been put in in service in April with 4 wind models (737-MW) . Combined they account for 99.2% of all new era capability. Natural gasoline supplies the steadiness – just one 16-MW.
In the primary 4 months of 2024, photo voltaic and wind added 7,899-MW and 1,825-MW respectively. Combined with 3-MW of recent biomass and 1-MW of hydropower, renewable YTD has once more elevated by 99.2% of capability. The steadiness consists of 67-MW of gasoline, 5-MW of oil, and 3-MW of “different.”
Solar is 80.6% of recent capability within the first third of 2024:
New photo voltaic capability added from January to April this 12 months is greater than double the photo voltaic capability (3,777-MW) added throughout the identical interval final 12 months. YTD, photo voltaic accounted for 80.6% of all new era positioned in service within the first third of 2024.
New wind capability YTD accounts for a lot of the steadiness – 18.6% however lower than that added within the first third of 2023 (1,977-MW).
Solar is now the most important supply of recent producing capability for eight months in a row: September 2023 – April 2024. For six of these eight months, wind took second place.
Solar is in fourth place for the share of producing capability within the US:
The newest capability additions deliver photo voltaic’s share of complete obtainable put in utility-scale (ie, >1-MW) producing capability as much as 8.56%, additional increasing the lead of this in hydropower (7.84%). Wind is at the moment at 11.77%. With the inclusion of biomass (1.13%) and geothermal (0.32%), renewables now declare a 29.62% share of complete US utility-scale producing capability.
Installed utility-scale photo voltaic has now moved into fourth place – behind pure gasoline (43.58%), coal (15.79%) and wind – for its share of producing capability after lately surpassing nuclear energy (8.06 %). [1]
Solar plus wind now accounts for greater than a fifth of US producing capability:
Combined photo voltaic and wind capability alone now make up greater than one-fifth (20.33%) of complete obtainable put in utility-scale producing capability.
However, a 3rd or extra of US photo voltaic capability is within the type of small (eg, rooftop) methods not mirrored in FERC information. Including the extra photo voltaic capability will deliver the share supplied by photo voltaic + wind to just about 1 / 4 of the nation’s complete. [2]
Solar is on observe to surpass the person capability of wind and coal:
FERC reported that web “excessive likelihood” photo voltaic additions between May 2024 and April 2027 totaled 88,096-MW — an quantity that greater than tripled the online “excessive likelihood” estimate. addition for wind (23,777-MW), the second quickest rising useful resource.
FERC additionally envisions development in hydropower (554-MW), geothermal (400-MW), and biomass (88-MW). On the opposite hand, there isn’t a new nuclear capability in FERC’s three-year forecast whereas coal, pure gasoline, and oil are projected to contract by 20,177-MW, 3,823-MW, and a couple of,016-MW respectively.
If FERC’s present “excessive likelihood” additions are realized, by May 1, 2027, photo voltaic will account for greater than one-seventh (14.39%) of the nation’s put in utility-scale producing capability. That’s greater than coal (13.33%) or wind (12.75%) and greater than nuclear energy (7.55%) or hydropower (7.39%).
The mixture of all renewables accounts for 35.92% of the entire obtainable put in utility-scale era capability – quick approaching pure gasoline (40.56%) – with photo voltaic and wind making up extra in three-quarters of the put in renewable power capability.
The mixed capability of all renewables may exceed that of pure gasoline inside three years:
As famous, the FERC information doesn’t account for the capability of small photo voltaic methods. If that’s factored in, inside three years, complete US photo voltaic capability (ie, small-scale plus utility-scale) will possible method – and probably exceed – 300 gigawatts (GW). Instead, the combo of all renewables will exceed 40% of the entire put in capability whereas the share of pure gasoline will drop to round 37%.
Additionally, FERC reported that there may very well be as a lot as 212,351-MW of web new photo voltaic additions to the present three-year pipeline along with 72,177-MW of recent wind and seven,695-MW of bag hydropower. Therefore, the share of renewables can be even higher in the course of spring 2027.
The mixture of wind and photo voltaic now accounts for greater than 20% of US producing capability and may very well be nearer to 1 / 4 if one provides somewhat photo voltaic. Including distributed photo voltaic, the combo of all renewables is poised to exceed pure gasoline capability throughout the subsequent three years.
SOURCE:
FERC’s 7-page “Energy Infrastructure Update for April 2024” was launched on June 10, 2024, and might be discovered at: https://cms.ferc.gov/media/energy-infrastructure-update-april-2024 .
For data cited on this replace, see the tables titled “New Generation In-Service (New Build and Expansion),” “Total Available Installed Generating Capacity,” and “Generation Capacity Additions and Retirements.”
Notes:
[1] Generation capability isn’t the identical as precise era. Fossil gasoline and nuclear energy typically have increased “capability elements” than wind and photo voltaic. For instance, the EIA studies the 2023 capability elements for nuclear energy and pure gasoline are 93.1% and 58.8% respectively whereas these for wind and utility-scale photo voltaic are 33.5% and 23.3%. See: https://www.eia.gov/electrical energy/month-to-month/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_6_… and https://www.eia.gov/electrical energy/month-to-month/epm_table_grapher.php?t=table_6_…
[2] See Table ES1.B of the EIA’s “Electric Power Monthly” report issued on May 23, 2024. For the primary quarter of 2024, the EIA studies an “estimated complete photo voltaic” of 55,038 thousand megawatt-hours together with 17,330 thousand megawatt-hours of “estimated small-scale photo voltaic photovoltaic” – ie, 31.48%. Because small photo voltaic has a smaller capability issue than utility-scale photo voltaic, comparatively extra capability is required than its share of precise era. Therefore, the mixed capability of small methods throughout the nation is estimated to be greater than a 3rd of all photo voltaic capability.
The SUN DAY Campaign is a non-profit analysis and academic group based in 1992 to assist a fast transition to 100% reliance on sustainable power applied sciences as a cheap various to nuclear energy and fossil fuels. and as an answer to local weather change. Follow on Twitter (or “X”): @SunDayCampaign
Courtesy of @SunDayCampaign, By Ken Bossong.
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