South Africa Will get A Duck Curve!

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A singular change within the form of {the electrical} load encountered in standard energy crops develops when growing ranges of PV are added to the system. This phenomenon was first noticed and printed in a paper by NREL in 2008. The phenomenon was later confirmed in additional element by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) in 2013. Since then (due to CAISO), this phenomenon is now identified. because the Duck Curve.

According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), the duck curve (named for its resemblance to a duck), “exhibits the distinction in electrical energy demand and the quantity of accessible photo voltaic power all through the day. When the solar shines, photo voltaic floods the market after which falls off as electrical energy demand rises at evening. The duck curve is a snapshot of a 24-hour interval in California through the spring – when this impact is extra extreme as a result of it’s sunny, however the temperature stays cool, so the demand for electrical energy is low as a result of folks don’t use electrical energy for air con or heating. .”

Meanwhile, on the opposite aspect of the world, South Africans are ramping up distributed photo voltaic installations in a giant method to shield themselves from frequent energy rationing cycles, and it seems like they’ve now put in a big quantity and we’re beginning to see. the primary indicators of a well-known duck curve. Let’s check out a few of the foremost highlights of South Africa’s electrical energy scene.

South Africa has a nominal put in electrical energy era capability (utility-scale crops solely) of 54.7 GW, 72.4% of which comes from coal energy crops. Utility-scale wind, photo voltaic PV, and concentrated photo voltaic’s contributions to this stand at 3.4 GW, 2.3 GW, and 0.5 GW respectively, as illustrated on this stunning chart courtesy of The Center For Renewable & Sustainable Energy Studies ( CRSES).

Another nice chart from CRSES illustrates the large progress within the distributed photo voltaic PV sector as houses and companies rush to put in photo voltaic PV. South Africa’s nationwide electrical energy firm Eskom estimates that there at the moment are greater than 5.4 GW of distributed photo voltaic PV put in in South Africa.

This progress in distributed photo voltaic PV, along with 2.3GW of utility-scale PV, is now contributing to South Africa’s personal duck curve, based on knowledge shared just lately by Wietze Post monitoring these developments. As illustrated within the following chart by Wietze, and searching on the knowledge from April and May from 2021 to 2024, plus the corresponding improve in photo voltaic PV installations in South Africa, it’s clear that the South Africa’s duck curve is beginning to turn into extra outstanding. In the months of April and May, it’s normally sunny in South Africa, in comparison with February and March, which have a little bit of rain. Corresponding knowledge for February and March are additionally proven beneath.

Hourly remaining demand in South Africa, April and May from 2021 to 2024. Wietze Post chart

Wietze additionally famous that the slight progressive drop in nighttime demand through the years could also be because of put in batteries taking a few of the nighttime demand, whereas nearly all of put in batteries might not final by means of the evening, therefore the outages. in an identical dip through the morning.

Solar PV programs, particularly for houses, and now particularly in South Africa’s C&I sector, are sometimes coupled with lithium-based battery programs as houses and companies transfer to guard themselves from in fixed energy rationing cycles. The electrical energy scenario has improved although over the previous few months with little or no to no load-shedding in any respect in South Africa.

A document quantity of proposed photo voltaic crops had been registered with South Africa’s power regulator final yr. With all these crops in varied levels of improvement, extra photo voltaic PV will come on-line subsequent yr, which means South Africa’s duck curve will likely be extra outstanding this time subsequent yr.