The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) reported in March that the US photo voltaic trade will set up 32.4 GWdc of capability in 2023, a outstanding 51% improve in comparison with 2022. This would be the largest yr in trade, which exceeded 30 GWdc capability within the first place. time. Overall, photovoltaic (PV) photo voltaic accounts for 53% of all new US electrical energy technology capability additions in 2023, accounting for greater than half of latest technology capability in first time. The utility, business and industrial, and residential sectors all set annual set up information, whereas the group photo voltaic sector was inside 5 MWdc of an annual file.
However, this isn’t only a US story, photo voltaic capability is rising quickly around the globe. In his Renewable 2023 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that 2023 will see a step change in renewable capability additions, pushed by China’s photo voltaic PV market. It says international annual renewable capability additions rose by almost 50% to just about 510 GW final yr—the quickest progress up to now 20 years. 2023 would be the twenty second yr in a row that renewable capability additions set a brand new file, in line with the IEA.
While progress in renewable capability in Europe, the US, and Brazil has hit all-time highs, China’s acceleration has been outstanding. In 2023, China will fee as a lot photo voltaic PV as the remainder of the world will in 2022. Solar PV accounts for three-quarters of renewable capability additions worldwide.
Utility-scale tasks are what actually drive the trade. In the US, utility-scale installations have elevated to 22.5 GWdc capability, in line with SEIA, a 77% improve by 2022. The short-term moratorium on anticircumvention tariffs relevant to sure imports from 4 Southeast Asian nations introduced some reduction to the photo voltaic provide chain, serving to tasks proceed final yr. The moratorium ends in June 2024, nonetheless, so we’ll see the way it impacts the tasks within the second half of this yr.
Texas Grid Grows
Texas would be the main state for photo voltaic installations in 2023. Since 2021, greater than 15 GW of latest photo voltaic capability has been added in Texas. Additionally, SEIA predicts that Texas will lead the nation with almost 100 GW of latest photo voltaic capability additions from 2024 to 2034, outpacing the following closest state by a two-to- one margin.
According to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid operator for about 90% of the load in Texas, photo voltaic technology will provide 32.4 TWh to its grid in 2023-7.29% of the annual whole. In the primary quarter of 2024, the proportion elevated to eight.16%, which is uncommon as a result of the winter season will not be often a main interval for photo voltaic manufacturing. Also notable is that photo voltaic will not be far behind nuclear (9.92%) or coal (12.10%) in ERCOT’s first quarter power combine. Natural gas-fired technology (40.42%) and wind (29.41%) are the clear leaders in Texas, nonetheless.
While photo voltaic solely accounts for 13.2% of put in capability in Texas, in line with ERCOT’s December 2023 Capacity, Demand, and Reserves (CDR) report for Summer 2024, it might have a big influence on the grid throughout peak intervals. . The April 2024 ERCOT reality sheet exhibits a photo voltaic technology file of 18,881 MW set on March 28 of this yr. The photo voltaic penetration file was additionally set that day at 42.98%. Although these numbers are wonderful, it’s seemingly that the technology file will probably be eclipsed someday this summer season, and regularly within the not too distant future.
The Duck Curve flows into Texas
The improve in photo voltaic technology in Texas is starting to create a duck curve within the ERCOT grid, just like what has lengthy been noticed within the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO’s) grid. For just a little background, the duck curve was first revealed in 2013 when CAISO printed a chart displaying the distinction in electrical energy demand and the quantity of accessible photo voltaic power all through the day. The curve is a snapshot of a 24-hour interval in California throughout the spring, when the impact is extra extreme as a result of it’s brilliant however the temperature stays cool, so the demand for electrical energy is low as a result of individuals no want to make use of loads of electrical energy for air. conditioning or heating. CAISO exhibits how the sample created by the noon peak of the web load curve, adopted by a steep rise at evening when photo voltaic technology drops, appears to be like just like the define of a duck, therefore the title.
Since 2013, California’s duck curve has deepened as increasingly solar energy has been added to the CAISO grid. In reality, on some days, the web demand curve will probably be unfavorable in California.
The scenario in Texas is not any worse than that seen in California. However, the rise in photo voltaic technology is beginning to have a noticeable impact. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) printed an article on April 9 evaluating ERCOT’s common hourly electrical energy technology in winter 2022–2023 to winter 2023–2024. The solar-caused dip was bigger this previous winter. In addition, it has been noticed that the duck curve is more and more occurring in different elements of the world in areas the place the share of photo voltaic technology is rising in comparison with technology from standard sources.
Every energy grid is totally different and operators will find yourself coping with rising photo voltaic capability in their very own distinctive methods. In ERCOT’s case, it has extra dispatchable gas-fired technology to play with than CAISO and its vital wind sources are prone to complement photo voltaic moderately than exacerbate the issue, so it’s going to have a neater time managing it. within the scenario, no less than on the time. when.
—Aaron Larson is the manager editor of POWER.
